S&P 500 back to March 2009 lows...in gold terms...

On March 6th 2009, the United States Standard & Poors 500 (S&P 500) index made an intraday low of 666. Gold on that day was $965. Thus, the S&P 500 bought .69 ounces of gold.

Today, at the intraday high of gold and the low of the S&P 500, the index bought .73 ounces.

Therefore, in gold terms and/or in REAL terms as opposed to NOMINAL money terms, today’s action in the S&P 500 has propelled us basically back to the March ’09 low.

What this means is gold closing at US$1,648 today is not expensive / overvalued.

Given the choice to invest in a broad index fund or purchase gold bullion (government mint coins, private mint rounds, bars etc), albeit these do not pay interest and dividends, you can sleep peacefully without contending with all the financial markets' volatility and USA and Eurozone sovereign debt crisises.

Going forward, gold is in a bull market, it is a store of value, it's real money. The financial markets still are still rivetted with risk. I encourage you to research this and consider buying the physical stuff or a financial ETF (NYSE: GLD).

Are you middle class? One possible definition...

Are you middle class? Surprisingly, most people who think they are middle class, are not middle class.

It's refreshing to observe how enhanced global trade flows have enabled significant numbers of people in Asia to rapidly close the gap with their American and European peers.

A recent opinion on "Being middle class" at ChrisMartenson.com (a respected American economics and finance blogger) is being able to afford a dozen of the following items what most would expect a middle class family of 4 or 5 can afford:

1. Income (from job and/or investments) to financially support yourself and your family of 4 or 5 without resorting to government assistance when it comes to housing benefits, welfare assistance, etc.

2. Reasonable health insurance/health care for your family (assuming no major debilitating conditions).

3. Reasonable dental insurance/dental care for your family (cleanings, the occasional crown, braces for a kid or two, etc. with affordable deductibles).

4. Paid off all educational loans within 10 years of graduating college / university.

5. Savings for retirement, around 10% to 15% or more of income put into a pension plan or other investments to cover retirement at age 65, medical expenses, possible nursing home care, etc.

6. Savings for both short- and intermediate-term goals (such as one replacement computer/notebook, television, or home appliance a year; a gently-used replacement vehicle every 7 years for each spouse).

7. Savings for long-term goals (having a 20% down payment towards the purchase of a house near where you currently live within 10 years of entering the job market, having higher education / university expenses at least half-covered within 18 years of each child's birth).

8. Kids' stuff: school clothes, tricycles/bicycles, inline skates or other sports equipment, uniforms or musical instruments, allowances, help with a used car when they reach driving age, etc.

9. A family vacation for a week, at least once every year or two; a family vacation for a week at least 2,000 miles away, at least once every 5 years.

10. Taking the family out to a decent restaurant (not Pizzahut) at least once per week.

11. Some new clothes and shoes each year - no need to shop for second-hand clothes.

12. Debt-free except mortgage - i.e. credit cards completely paid off every month (or at most three months).

For Asia, I would add being able to employ a live-in maid to run a domestic household while one or both spouses are at work.

If you:
- are on government assistance,
- have delayed health care or dental care because of costs,
- cannot save 10% to 15% of your income towards retirement costs,
- are not able to save the equivalent of a 20% down payment towards a house (yes I understand you may not want to own, but you know the directional goal I'm driving towards),
- cannot afford to take vacations,
- are not able to pay off your credit card every month, etc.

then you're really not what traditionally would be defined as middle class. You're struggling or you're working class or lower middle class. Even if you might have an iPhone or some of the latest fashions, you're really deluding yourself.

This goes double if both spouses work and such a lifestyle still can't be afforded. Over 50 years ago, most middle class women in the United States and western Europe didn't even work outside the home.

Obviously, we are looking at financial behavioural traits here instead of focussing on absolute income thresholds, since cost of living indices vary across different countries.

However, when it comes down to the crunch, strong leading middle class indicators include the capacity to save for a down payment on a home, deploy an emergency fund, build up children's college funds, etc.

So feel to mention some other items that would be expected of a typical middle class family, that many who think they are middle class, actually can't afford.

The US$15 trillion debt ceiling...a graphic picture of what this debt pile looks like...

With a 2nd August deadline looming and unless Congress approves an increase in the debt ceiling, the United States government finds itself running out of cash to pay social security recipients and on the brink of defaulting on interest payments to Treasury bondholders. So just how big is the size of the US$15 trillion "credit card" hole which the government finds itself in? (ie US$15,000 billion, US$15,000,000 million)

Well, let's say it's all piled up in one place using US$100 notes...and take a few reference points like comparing it to the Statue of Liberty, an American football or soccer pitch...

Nope, there's not much hope of this being paid off in a hurry within this generation.

It looks like our kids and maybe, grandchildren, will have to shoulder this burden of excess in the years to come...

How to plan for and protect yourself against the implications:
Just how bad is the US$ financial crisis?

What US$ 1 trillion in US$100 notes look like?

The 1st China-US Governors Forum paves the way for closer bilateral trade and economic ties in Sino-Chinese relations...

The first ever China-US Governors Forum opened at Salt Lake City on 14th July. Its purpose is to provide a new platform in promoting cooperation between the two sides in areas of trade, investment, energy, environment and people to people exchanges.

With the full backing of both Presidents Hu and Obama, it is jointly organized by the Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries (CPAFFC) and the National Governors Association (NGA) of the United States. This venture was instigated by President Hu in his January visit to the United States to enhance cooperation at the local level between the two countries.

The Chinese delegation led by the Zhejiang provincial Communist party secretary Zhao Hongzhu plus leaders from a number of Chinese provincial leaders including from Anhui, Qinghai, Yunnan and Zhejiang and over 30 US governors attended the forum. CPAFFC and NGA signed a Memorandum of Understanding, pledging to make the forum a long-term fixture.

In 2010, China exports to the United States totalled US$364 billion. This compared with US exports to China of US$91 billion. Last year, exports from 24 states to China exceeded US$ 1 billion. Over the past decade, 47 US states' exports to China have grown over 100 percent.

The conference attracted a few hundred researchers and entrepreneurs from local universities, businesses and other institutions in China and the US, as they explore opportunities for new joint projects to promote trade and business, education, cultural exchanges and tourism.

According to the China Daily, this was not just a talk-fest...20 deals were inked including:
- Starbucks and Aini Group in Yunnan (one of the province's most established coffee operators and agricultural companies) signed an agreement to create a coffee business partnership between their two companies, to purchase and export high-quality arabica Yunnan coffee beans, as well as operate dry mills in Yunnan province.
- The Wuhu Economic and Technological Development Zone in East China's Anhui province reached a deal with NuvoSun on a project for thin film solar cells.
- The first China-Midwest (Shanghai -St. Louis) cargo air route operated by China Eastern poised to be a key trade hub will take flight in September creating 12–15,000jobs in St Louis, Missouri. This is subject to one final piece of legislation to be passed by Missouri state senators in September.

This is one dimension that has the highest potential to both promote improving economic relations and bolster closer social ties between the two countries. It dovetails with the signature state visits and summits held by both countries recently in 2009 and 2011…..where the almost obligatory mega-deals are penned eg Boeing planes, Caterpillar mining and construction equipment.

Casting aside any political rivalries and military tensions between the world's top two nations by GDP, it’s one small step for bilateral trade and a giant stride for Sino-US commerce.

China's new Shanghai to Beijing high-speed rail link opens on 30 June...plane wins on time but does not beat cost, comfort and convenience

Thursday, 30 June 2011, the eve of the 90th anniversary of the 1 July founding of the Chinese Communist Party, was a historic day marking the inauguration of the newly built Shanghai to Beijing high speed rail link (HSR - 国高速铁路).


Work began in April 2008 and it was completed ahead of schedule at a total cost of RMB221 billion (US$28bn). The HSR is expected to have a top speed of 300km per hour along the 1,318km route, punctuated by 22 stations with 23 trains running daily in both directions.

Linking the mainland's economic and political hubs, both cities are both currently plagued by gridlocked city centres due to the recent rapid economic growth in China and the relentless increase of middle class car ownership.

A point to point, time and cost test comparing the new hi-speed rail service with an airliner was carried out by two intrepid South China Morning Post reporters on the day. So, how long would it take to reach the downtown Beijing bureau from their central Shanghai office? Will hi-speed rail drastically cut into the time savings from flying. The results highlighted above are pleasantly surprising.

Unless one is seriously time constrained, it makes sense with some forward planning, to just hop on the express, sit back, kick off your heels, and bask in comfort watching the landscape roll by.

If this exercise is anything to go by, HSR for the 1,318km journey is a serious challenger to flying. If the original plan to run the trains at 350km per hour had forged ahead, this would have killed off the airlines slashing the rail journey to around four hours. However, reasons such as affordable pricing, increasing energy efficiency and potential safety factors put that to rest.

There will be long term benefits which the HSR will bring to the 2nd and 3rd tier cities along the route which includes 22 stations (eg real estate and infrastructure development).

China has the world's longest HSR network with about 8,358 km (5,193 miles) of routes in service as of January 2011 including 2,197 km (1,365 miles) of rail lines with top speeds of 350 km per hour (220 mph). Since the introduction of high-speed rail on April 18, 2007, daily ridership has grown from 237,000 in 2007 and 349,000 in 2008 to 492,000 in 2009 and 796,000 in 2010. This vision was only realised via extensive cooperation and through technology transfer agreements with foreign train makers Siemens, Bombardier and Kawasaki Heavy Industries.

Going forward, Chinese train-makers and rail builders have signed agreements to build HSRs in Turkey, Venezuela and Argentina; bidding on HSR projects in Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States and Brazil. They are competing directly with the established European and Japanese manufacturers, and sometimes partnering with them.

Back on the train...all that remains is to iron out the glitches from the poor mobile phone reception encountered on this first day. Then the business community could really catch on...