China's new Shanghai to Beijing high-speed rail link opens on 30 June...plane wins on time but does not beat cost, comfort and convenience

Thursday, 30 June 2011, the eve of the 90th anniversary of the 1 July founding of the Chinese Communist Party, was a historic day marking the inauguration of the newly built Shanghai to Beijing high speed rail link (HSR - 国高速铁路).


Work began in April 2008 and it was completed ahead of schedule at a total cost of RMB221 billion (US$28bn). The HSR is expected to have a top speed of 300km per hour along the 1,318km route, punctuated by 22 stations with 23 trains running daily in both directions.

Linking the mainland's economic and political hubs, both cities are both currently plagued by gridlocked city centres due to the recent rapid economic growth in China and the relentless increase of middle class car ownership.

A point to point, time and cost test comparing the new hi-speed rail service with an airliner was carried out by two intrepid South China Morning Post reporters on the day. So, how long would it take to reach the downtown Beijing bureau from their central Shanghai office? Will hi-speed rail drastically cut into the time savings from flying. The results highlighted above are pleasantly surprising.

Unless one is seriously time constrained, it makes sense with some forward planning, to just hop on the express, sit back, kick off your heels, and bask in comfort watching the landscape roll by.

If this exercise is anything to go by, HSR for the 1,318km journey is a serious challenger to flying. If the original plan to run the trains at 350km per hour had forged ahead, this would have killed off the airlines slashing the rail journey to around four hours. However, reasons such as affordable pricing, increasing energy efficiency and potential safety factors put that to rest.

There will be long term benefits which the HSR will bring to the 2nd and 3rd tier cities along the route which includes 22 stations (eg real estate and infrastructure development).

China has the world's longest HSR network with about 8,358 km (5,193 miles) of routes in service as of January 2011 including 2,197 km (1,365 miles) of rail lines with top speeds of 350 km per hour (220 mph). Since the introduction of high-speed rail on April 18, 2007, daily ridership has grown from 237,000 in 2007 and 349,000 in 2008 to 492,000 in 2009 and 796,000 in 2010. This vision was only realised via extensive cooperation and through technology transfer agreements with foreign train makers Siemens, Bombardier and Kawasaki Heavy Industries.

Going forward, Chinese train-makers and rail builders have signed agreements to build HSRs in Turkey, Venezuela and Argentina; bidding on HSR projects in Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States and Brazil. They are competing directly with the established European and Japanese manufacturers, and sometimes partnering with them.

Back on the train...all that remains is to iron out the glitches from the poor mobile phone reception encountered on this first day. Then the business community could really catch on...

World Bank appoints a new treasurer Madelyn Antoncic...ex-Chief Risk Officer of Lehman Bros...

The newly appointed Vice President and Treasurer of the World Bank was the Chief Risk Officer at Lehman Brothers when they went bankrupt in 2008.

Antoncic had been with them since 1999...so how much did she know about the underlying asset quality of the bank's assets before they imploded...she can't say she didn't know what was going on...can she?

World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick said...“Known for her forthrightness, I am delighted Madelyn is taking up this important role. She brings to the Bank an extensive background in the financial industry and a demonstrated record of leadership, innovation, and integrity.”

Antoncic holds a Ph.D. in Economics and Finance from New York University. As treasurer she will be responsible for maintaining the World Bank's high standing in financial markets and for managing an extensive client advisory, transaction, and asset management business.

It's a zany world out there across the big pond...

A new Eurozone stress test... Denmark shuts its borders to immigration...

On 11 May, Denmark shocked the European Union (EU) by announcing it will install permanent stations along its frontiers to curb crime and illegal immigration. Control booths will be erected at crossings to Germany and Sweden and in harbors and airports.

This contravenes the spirit of the 1985 "Schengen Agreement" — a free-travel system that has removed compulsory passport controls between many internal borders in Europe. The Schengen Area currently consists of 25 states, all but 3 of which are members of the European Union; the non-EU members being Iceland, Norway and Switzerland.

The system has been under pressure recently with the EU Commission considering reintroducing national border controls in the face of a flood of North African immigrants. The agreement in Denmark was made to meet demands from the government's nationalistic ally, the Danish People's Party, and is expected to be approved by Parliament.

With the Arab Spring in which conflagrations blew up in Algeria, Libya and Egypt, Mediterranean border nations like Greece, Italy, Spain and Malta have also complained that the 27-nation EU has dumped its immigration issues and the costs of dealing with illegal immigrants on their backs.

Coupled with recent economic fissures appearing inside the EU and aversion by some states to come to the rescue of fellow members, the bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal have already dealt a crushing blow to the euro. Spain's fate looks sealed too. With the Denmark butterfly now flapping its wings, this could be a harbinger of a wider European fragility.

Nationalism looks to be increasingly asserting itself on both the ecoonomic and social fronts...the liberal fabric of Europe is be about to be sorely tested...

China cracks down on Unilever...for daring to raise prices.

On May 6, the Chinese Government declared it will fine Unilever RMB 2 million (US$ 308,000) for announcing in the media its intention to raise prices on a range of its consumer products. Apparently this had led to hoarding.

The National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency, said in a statement sales on some products surged 100 times above "normal" levels. The government has stamped its authority to control inflation as a top priority and the central bank stated on May 3 “stabilizing prices and managing inflation expectations are critical.”

The NDRC reminded China’s Price Law disallows operators from fabricating and distributing information about price increases, raising prices collectively and pushing up prices excessively. Consumer prices in China jumped 5.4% in March, the biggest increase in 32 months, exceeding the government’s 4% full-year target every month this year.

It's interesting how Unilever could respond to this in the long term as it also confronts the rising trend of commodity price. Shackled by pricing constraints, it may have to put the China business model under the microscope. To stay competitive and serve this growing market, does it need to evaluate and source from another low-cost manufacturing location within SE Asia or India? Capped and/or diminishing profit margins are not the basis of sound sustainable businesses.

Standard & Poors Cuts USA Sovereign Credit Rating to "Negative" from "Stable"

The US ratings agencies, long discredited for kow-towing to the major Wall Street investment houses, as they led a race to the bottom in terms of assigning ratings to sophisticated and complex instruments they themselves were not able to fully understand, finally peered over the fiscal precipice on Monday with Standard & Poors opening the first salvo to admonish the US sovereign credit rating. It cut its long-term outlook on the US to "negative" from "stable." The revision sparked fears that Uncle Sam could soon surrender his coveted "AAA" rating, the cornerstone of "reserve currency" status.

I've always seen these firms as lagging indicators to the machinations in the real economy. Look at what happened in the Eurozone with Greece, Ireland and Portugal. They were late...as usual...in recognising the gargantuan sovereign fiscal risks. Maybe they don't see it as part of their remit anymore to stand up to and ruffle governments' feathers before fiscal road accidents happen. It used to be said the role of the Federal Reserve was to take away the punch bowl just as the party got swinging...with the independent ratings agencies jousting alongside in tandem. However, the pressure within these agencies to search for new sources of income compromised their high ethical standards in the quarterly earnings pressure-cooker that is Wall Street.

For most of 2011, long-term bond yields have been in a trading range between 4.375% and 4.65%. Despite the upward trajectory of QE2 money printing, an endless stream of Treasury bonds issuance and foreign buyers starting to make noises about US fiscal irresponsibilty (Brazil, Russia and China) and the Government's ability to repay, yields have remained stubbornly low.

But interest rates will have to go higher soon...the Treasury has to offer attractive yields to appeal to these overseas buyers to buy ever higher volumes. In February, PIMCO, led by bond king Bill Gross, a conservative bond stalwart, announced its exit from the US treasury market completely. That's akin to Burger King declaring they no longer will use beef in their burgers.

The opportunity to short the treasury bond market is not far off, with yields near the lowest points and pricing near the top of their trading ranges. QE2 ends on 30th June and will open up uncertainty as the market addicts develope cold turkey. Where else can one find the grease to ramp up the markets? A lucrative ETF, ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (symbol NYSE: TBT) is a good proxy to brace for a decline in treasury prices, gaining 2% for each 1% fall in price.