Saturday 6 October 2012

History of World Economies with Hyperinflation

http://www.cato.org/pubs/researchnotes/Hanke-Krus-Hyperinflation-Table.pdf
Hyperinflation Table
There have been 56 documented cases of hyperinflation outbreaks in history. Most people are still tantalised by Germany's 1922-3 episode associated with an advanced economy.

Click here or image to view full table (pdf)
 
From the Cato Institute, Steve Hanke and Nicholas Krus have recently completed a study listing the worst hyperinflation outbreaks in history. By rank, the top 3 are Hungary (1945-6), Zimbabwe (2007-8) and Yugoslavia (1992-4). Germany (1922-3) ranks number 5.

For the first time, a table contains all 56 episodes of hyperinflation from 1920 to the present day, including several which had previously gone unreported. The Hyperinflation Table is compiled in a systematic and uniform way. Most importantly, it meets the replicability test. It uses clean and consistent inflation metrics, indicates the start and end dates of each episode, identifies the month of peak hyperinflation, and signifies the currency that was in circulation, as well as the method used to calculate inflation rates.

Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Co-Director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. Nicholas Krus is a research associate at the Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.

Sunday 2 September 2012

A history of currency and monetary exchange rate systems


To view and make the image bigger, click here
Do you get confused by currencies? Why and how do they move? What is the role of Governments? Knowing a brief history of currency exchange rate systems can help you understand today's three vexing questions which are, will:
1) the US dollar retain it's status as the world's reserve currency?
2) the Euro collapse within the next 5 years?
3) the China remninbi (yuan) be a potential challenger to replace the US dollar in the future?

Take the US dollar for instance... each 10, 20, 50 and 100 dollar note assures you, the cherished owner, the right to redeem it for…5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 dollars respectively. It's purchasing power today should not be confused with its intrinsic value (the amount of collateral it's backed by).

Is this just a simple “I-give-it-to-you-so-that-you-can-give-it-back-to-me” manoeuvre or are there other odious forces involved you are not aware of?

Let's take a look at this graphic which does a quick roundtrip of this quirk and recounts the evolution of currency systems from 1821 to the present day.

As it turns out this history is far more exciting than is usually let on (think political thriller as opposed to economic textbook!). For a rivetting exposé, I recently read and recommend a book by James Rickards (an American economist and 35+ years Wall Street investment banker), author of the New York times bestseller published in 2011 Currency Wars.

 Infographic: hat tips to greshams-law.com and goldmoney.com  

Saturday 28 July 2012

What is the value of an Olympics gold medal? Worth of silver and bronze medals...


The 2,300 Olympic medals are currently being guarded at the Tower of London until the games begin, July 27. As it turns out, the Olympic gold medal is made mostly of silver.










The first modern day Olympic Games were held in Athens, Greece in 1896. King George I of Greece opened the competition, attended by 14 nations and covering 43 different sporting events. After they concluded, he urged organizers to allow the games to move around the globe to different host nations.

The Olympic games have not handed out solid gold medals since the 1912 summer games in Stockholm, Sweden.

The 2012 Olympic medals were made from nearly nine tons of metal from Rio Tinto's Kennecott Utah Copper mine in Salt Lake City and its Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia.

British artist David Watkins created this year's design on the front of the medal. The back depicts Nike, the Greek Goddess of Victory stepping out of the Parthenon.

The Royal Mint in South Wales pressed the medals in a 10-hour process that requires a 1,400°F furnace and nearly 1,000 tons of weight on a special press.

Sunday 19 February 2012

A graphic picture of debt relative to GDP for major world economies










World governments have borrowed massive amounts of money to live beyond their means. Above is a graphic showing the world's largest economies, how much debt they borrowed and the interest payment due relative to their GDP. The tab is piling up...

Bloomberg: World’s Biggest Economies Face $7.6 Trillion Bond Tab as Rally Seen Fading 

How the debt eventually piles up?
This is just an ordinary US$ 100 bill


US$ 10,000 can fit snugly into your trouser pockets...


Hmm...US$ 1 million needs a decent sized briefcase...


At US$ 100 million, one needs to stack these notes onto a pallet....



US$ 2 billion dollars...that's 20 pallets loaded onto a truck...

Now let's visualise how major countries debts are piled up compared to the size of national landmarks...

The number of red pallets represent government repayments due in 2012;  yellow equates to the outstanding debt after the 2012 repayments; the trucks represent the 2012 interest payments due on the total debt piles

Hat-tip to Demonocracy.info

India
India is rather poor if you look at individual income but because of its large population, skewed with younger demographics in which more than 50% are under age 25 and 65% under 35 ,  it is a significant economic power-house in the world.

It has racked up a debt of 74% of the economy in 2011, which is more than the 60% debt to economy ratio set by EU for economic stability standard.

China

The debt pile seems rather scary for China but the size of its economy and population is not to be underestimated. The debt only accounts for ~17.5% of the economy.

China has the world's second largest economy, overtaking Japan in 2011, it is still experiencing economic growth and has the biggest foreign exchange reserves in the world at US$ 3,200 billion.

The bigger the foreign exchange reserves, the more power the country has to influence the value of its own currency.

The greater a country's foreign reserves, the better position it is in to defend itself from speculative attacks on the domestic currency.

It is also accumulating gold bullion aggressively in 2011 to diversify its "paper" reserves.

Japan
Japanese debt stacked around the destroyed Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Japan could have built a wall of money to keep Fukushima safe from the Tsunami, with all the money they borrowed.

Fukushima Power Plant compared to the trucks is GIGANTIC.

Japan is a unique example. It holds a MASSIVE 228% debt to economy ratio. This is only possible because of loyalty of Japanese people to the Japanese government. Japan's people are the main buyers of Japanese government debt, and as long as they blindly buy the debt, and interest rates don't go up, they can practically run up the debt indefinitely. The issues start when everyone starts wondering how they will get the money back.

While historically having a good export surplus; Japan still has two "lost decades", where it has experienced no economic growth. This is mainly due to the large amounts of debt.

United States

USA is the nation with most debt by far in the history of human civilization.

USA's total debt, including personal debt, real estate (mortgage) debt, consumer debt, credit card debt and government debt totals a mega US$ 47,992bn, roughly 2,400 trucks full of money. That's the huge wall at the back in the graphic. Source: US Debt Clock

USA borrowed US$ 1,229 billion in 2011 - roughly 2.5x towers of cash in the background. USA runs a mega ~35% budget deficit, far above the 3% max limit set by EU for economic stability standard.

With industrialized world economies in crisis, USA faces little problem to finance its budget deficit in 2012 since world's money is currently flowing into USA in great numbers as investors try to find "safety" where to store their money, since Europe is not safe; neither are banks.

As long as USA has access to cheap credit due to scared investors willing to hand over their money in name of "safety", USA's interest payments will remain far below normal. Much depends on it retaining its AA+ credit rating and the US dollar's status as a world reserve currency.

Canada

Canada has a US$1,577 billion economy, while carrying a relatively insignificant trade deficit of US$ 9 billion.

In 2012 Canada must re-pay and/or re-finance a significant portion of its debt. It must refinance 42% of its debt, but since the country carries as AAA credit rating as of Jan. 2012 it faces little challenge to re-finance its debt.

Brazil
Brazil has in recent years become an Economic power-house and is now included in the G7 (Group of 7) nations meetings.

The economy is rated at US$ 2,517 billion.

With a 4.7% unemployment in 2011 and an export surplus it it is doing rather well.

United Kingdom
The UK has a large economy of US$2,480 billion but now holds debt in the size of ~75% of economy, which is more than the 60% max debt to economy ratio set by EU for economic stability standard.

As of Jan 2012, UK holds a AAA credit rating but has a staggering Gross External Debt of US$8,981 billion(not shown).

The private sector of UK (people, business', etc) are highly indebted, only surpassed by USA. High debt slows economic growth and it is reflected in the slow 0.9% growth of economy in 2011, which is much lower than the 4.2% inflation - meaning people of UK are becoming more poor as of 2011/2012.

France
The French are among the countries attacking PIIGS countries for their bad economic behavior, but are increasingly finding themselves in the same economic situation.

Their credit rating was downgraded from AAA to AA+ recently and hold a 83.5% (2011) debt to economy ratio, above the 60% set by EU for economic stability standard.

French banks are also among the financially weak banks that pose a danger to the French economy.

 Italy
Italy's economy is considered weak and too indebted for safe financial operation. Even its key commercial banks, including Unicredit, are a total mess.

It has a debt ratio of 118.1% (2010) to economy, far above the 60% limit set by EU for stability. Italy faces a GIANT re-payment / re-finance of US$ 428 billion of its debt in 2012, with strong fear that it will have problems finding lenders/investors that want to lend the weak country money.

Credit rating agencies say the outlook for Italy is negative, which means their credit rating will be down-graded in the future, as the debt takes serious toll on the economy and try struggle to pay back their debt.

This will further scare lenders / investors away and force the interest rates up - amount of trucks full of cash of tax-payer money sent to investors / banks / lenders.

Germany
Germany is considered the flag-ship of European economies.

Germany holds a ~80% debt ratio to economy, above the 60% limit standard set by EU for stability, while being mad at Greece and PIIGS for doing the same.

Germany faces a US$ 285 billion repayment/refinance of debt in 2012 but sees no problem of finding lenders, since Germany's economy looks great compared to the rest of the industrialized world.

Russia
The motherland is doing great...

Russia compared to its large economy holds barely any government debt - only 2.5% of economy (GDP).

Russia's Government benefits from large export surplus to pay for government's expenses.

The export surplus comes mainly from exporting natural resources, including natural gas and oil.

Sunday 12 February 2012

The rise of high frequency trading (HFT) and volatility fractures in stockmarkets

Could rapid stock-price changes caused by ultra-fast high frequency trading (HFT) computerised programmes be responsible for recent United States stock market gyrations?  (click on graphic to enlarge)

The changes, which researchers describe as 'fractures', could be key to understanding what causes stock market volatility and crashes.

They could also offer an 'early warning system' for when the markets are becoming unstable. The "fractures" occur so quickly they would be invisible to any human trader, existing in a world of computerised trading algorithms which make trades in milliseconds.

HFT techniques have long been suspected of causing sudden meltdowns such as the one day flash crash on 6 May 2010;  the volatile period after the loss of the US AAA credit rating in August 2011;  and the recent "melt-up" in the markets after October 2011, which seems to defy the reality of domestic economic fundamentals.

Now, a study analysing price logs from 60 markets provided by Eric Hunsader, CEO of  Nanex,  a firm who are by far the best forensic analysts of everything that is busted with the US stock market, have completed a masterpiece analysis showing the churning (packet traffic) "fractures" across the spectrum of  US market venues, from the NYSE, Nasdaq to BATS and so forth, on a daily basis beginning in January 2007 and continuing through today. It uncovers the explosive impact of HFT in daily trading volumes, exposing the weird patterns high frequency traders make when they trade.

What is stunning is the first animated confirmation (hat tip: ZeroHedge) of the market terminally breaking on August 5, 2011, the day the US was downgraded. It just shows how bad things are in graphic format.  (click on graphic to enlarge)

Which begs the question: what really happened in the stock market on August 5, 2011 when the US was downgraded to AA+, when everything literally broke, who is intervening constantly in the stock market, and why are they doing so via various HFT intermediary mechanisms?

These changes could build up in the financial system in much the same way as an accumulation of cracks in an aircraft's wing.

Something is starting to break open...a war of the algorithms is underway...high-speed trading is outpacing high-speed regulations...an investment Judgement Day is on the horizon as Skynet and the machines have taken over.

Eric Hunsader, the guy who has a big prediction about the next, there will be a next, he says, flash crash. He told Forbes it'll be caused by someone on purpose. However, developing his analysis techniques into methods or tools for reliably predicting crashes is a very appealing prospect. This work could turn out to be a major step in that direction.