China is poised to become officially the 2nd biggest economy in the world in 2009. On Christmas Day, the Beijing Statistical Office raised its 2008 GDP from 9 to 9.6% valuing the economy at US$4.6tn (US$4,600 billion) compared to Japan's US$4.9tn. In 2009, the forecast is for 8% GDP growth. To date, growth year-on-year for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters were 6.1%, 7.5% and 8.9%. Averaging the first nine months at 7.7%, it will almost certainly overtake a stagnating Japan economy which the World Bank forecasts to shrink by 6% in 2009 and has held this 2nd spot for decades. India now ranks 4th.
“The big underlying factor propelling China’s growth is the continued migration of people from the agricultural sector to the more modern economy — industry and services,” said David Cohen , an economist at Action Economic in Singapore. “There’s no stopping China.”
China has had a natural advantage over Japan for years in terms of abundant natural resources, particularly energy and metals and a competitive labour pool. Japan has been captive to the price increases of world oil and natural gas prices.
China will still take decades to catch the United States' US$14tn economy although it can close that gap quickly if the US grows at 2-3% a year and it maintains current breakneck 8%+ rates.
The Chinese may not need to build a strong military to pass the US as the world's leading power. While maintaining powerful armies was important in the 20th century, national influence in the 21st century is liked to be fomented on currency value, export strength and access to natural resources. It is searching in all continents and developing alliances to secure natural resources, particularly oil and uranium.
Headwinds are never far away. Interventionist government investment, low interest rates and asset bubbles, according to some economists, can still crash the economy in the same manner as happened to Japan in the late 1980s from which they never recovered. Robust reserves can be eroded by bad debts from state owned banks. The country's demography points to a one-child policy leading to an inevitable aging population and pressure on the public finances that will constrain its growth prospects.
In 2010 China will play a pivotal role to shore up the waning US and European economies as it engages with its continuing , albeit diminishing purchases of their Government debt (Treasury bills, gilts etc). It is now locked in a relentless battle to prevent a meltdown in the value of its international reserves, denominated over 70% in US$; a battle that can be won only by diversifying stealthily to other asset classes. If it does not maintain the buying of US Treasuries, this signal to the financial markets will trigger a domino effect leading to the collapse of the US$ and plunge the country and the world at large into yet another economic crisis. Obama and Hu are playing a high stakes game of who blinks first.
In the future, China is considered likely to overtake the US in GDP... but three decades ago, so was Japan.
Tuesday, 29 December 2009
Friday, 25 December 2009
Christmas...from religion to commercialisation
Christmas conveys different meanings to different people nowdays. That's not just the obvious religious connotations associated with it but the vast swathes of commercialisation that has swept all before it...Japan and China embrace it despite being steeped in Buddhism, Taoism and Shinto.
It was never like this. Christmas really started off as a Roman orgy...behind the backdrop of celebrating the winter solstice. Even when Charles Dickens wrote "A Christmas Carol" in 1843, the semblance of Christmas being a religious holiday was not even in the mainstream conciousness. It was an American Thomas Nast who introduced a rotund bearded Santa Claus to the world in the 1860s... and it wasn't until the 1920s that Coca Cola spread the global message of a decked out red coated "Father Christmas".
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119820996084944523.html
1995 - Holidays are Coming
Tonight, I will probably fall asleep very late over a glass of red wine counting my blessings after watching Frank Capra's "A Wonderful Life" (1946)...a truly inspirational film.
A merry Christmas to you all!
It was never like this. Christmas really started off as a Roman orgy...behind the backdrop of celebrating the winter solstice. Even when Charles Dickens wrote "A Christmas Carol" in 1843, the semblance of Christmas being a religious holiday was not even in the mainstream conciousness. It was an American Thomas Nast who introduced a rotund bearded Santa Claus to the world in the 1860s... and it wasn't until the 1920s that Coca Cola spread the global message of a decked out red coated "Father Christmas".
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119820996084944523.html
1995 - Holidays are Coming
Tonight, I will probably fall asleep very late over a glass of red wine counting my blessings after watching Frank Capra's "A Wonderful Life" (1946)...a truly inspirational film.
A merry Christmas to you all!
Wednesday, 28 October 2009
First among equals - China, the US and the surveillance society
It is a great source of wonderment how some of the stark government controlled economic models can rival their established advanced market counterparts in terms of economic vibrancy...and function under onerous surveillance. Or should this conventional line be turned the other way around?
Each year since 1997, the US-based Electronic Privacy Information Center and the UK-based Privacy International have undertaken what has now become the most comprehensive survey of global privacy ever published. The latest 2007 global rankings extend the survey to 47 countries (from an original 37) and, for the first time, provide an opportunity to assess trends. The intention behind this project is two-fold. First, to recognize countries in which privacy protection and respect for privacy is nurtured. This is done in the hope that others can learn from their example. Second, to identify countries in which governments and privacy regulators have failed to create a healthy privacy environment. The aim is not to humiliate the worst ranking nations, but to demonstrate that it is possible to maintain a healthy respect for privacy within a secure and fully functional democracy.
Watched or not watched, that is probably not the question.
Each year since 1997, the US-based Electronic Privacy Information Center and the UK-based Privacy International have undertaken what has now become the most comprehensive survey of global privacy ever published. The latest 2007 global rankings extend the survey to 47 countries (from an original 37) and, for the first time, provide an opportunity to assess trends. The intention behind this project is two-fold. First, to recognize countries in which privacy protection and respect for privacy is nurtured. This is done in the hope that others can learn from their example. Second, to identify countries in which governments and privacy regulators have failed to create a healthy privacy environment. The aim is not to humiliate the worst ranking nations, but to demonstrate that it is possible to maintain a healthy respect for privacy within a secure and fully functional democracy.
The key findings are:
- The 2007 rankings indicate an overall worsening of privacy protection across the world, reflecting an increase in surveillance and a declining performance on privacy safeguards.
- Concern over immigration and border control dominated the world agenda in 2007. Countries have moved swiftly to implement database, identity and fingerprinting systems, often without regard to the privacy implications for their own citizens.
- The 2007 rankings show an increasing trend amongst governments to archive data on the geographic, communications and financial records of all their citizens and residents. This trend leads to the conclusion that all citizens, regardless of legal status, are under suspicion.
- The lowest ranking countries in the survey continue to be Malaysia, Russia and China. The highest-ranking countries in 2007 are Greece, Romania and Canada. The worst ranking EU country is the United Kingdom, which again fell into the "black" category along with Russia and Singapore. In terms of statutory protections and privacy enforcement, the US is the worst ranking country in the democratic world (the US Patriot Act - Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism - was signed into law on 26 October, 2001). Argentina scored higher than 18 of the 27 EU countries. Australia ranks higher than Slovakia but lower than South Africa and New Zealand.
- The privacy trends have been fueled by the emergence of a profitable surveillance industry (eg 安防科技(中国)有限公司- China Security & Surveillance Technology [CSR] NYSE listed Shenzhen based company)dominated by global IT companies and the creation of numerous international treaties that frequently operate outside judicial or democratic processes.
The potential for engagement of these developments is currently limited to a marginal response. The problem for civil society – or indeed anyone wishing to challenge surveillance - is not simply the sheer magnitude of the threat, but also its complexity and diversity.
As this article is not meant to stir a rip-roaring debate on the moral direction of human rights and privacy concerns, it is nevertheless intriguing how the human spirit can still consistently prevail and triumph within these government strictures across all cultures. Economic Man or as it really cuts to the core of the theories of 18th century thinkers such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo. In "The Wealth of Nations" Smith wrote: " It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest." In modern day terms, so the phrase "there is no such thing as a free lunch" was coined.
- Concern over immigration and border control dominated the world agenda in 2007. Countries have moved swiftly to implement database, identity and fingerprinting systems, often without regard to the privacy implications for their own citizens.
- The 2007 rankings show an increasing trend amongst governments to archive data on the geographic, communications and financial records of all their citizens and residents. This trend leads to the conclusion that all citizens, regardless of legal status, are under suspicion.
- The lowest ranking countries in the survey continue to be Malaysia, Russia and China. The highest-ranking countries in 2007 are Greece, Romania and Canada. The worst ranking EU country is the United Kingdom, which again fell into the "black" category along with Russia and Singapore. In terms of statutory protections and privacy enforcement, the US is the worst ranking country in the democratic world (the US Patriot Act - Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism - was signed into law on 26 October, 2001). Argentina scored higher than 18 of the 27 EU countries. Australia ranks higher than Slovakia but lower than South Africa and New Zealand.
- The privacy trends have been fueled by the emergence of a profitable surveillance industry (eg 安防科技(中国)有限公司- China Security & Surveillance Technology [CSR] NYSE listed Shenzhen based company)dominated by global IT companies and the creation of numerous international treaties that frequently operate outside judicial or democratic processes.
The potential for engagement of these developments is currently limited to a marginal response. The problem for civil society – or indeed anyone wishing to challenge surveillance - is not simply the sheer magnitude of the threat, but also its complexity and diversity.
As this article is not meant to stir a rip-roaring debate on the moral direction of human rights and privacy concerns, it is nevertheless intriguing how the human spirit can still consistently prevail and triumph within these government strictures across all cultures. Economic Man or as it really cuts to the core of the theories of 18th century thinkers such as Adam Smith and David Ricardo. In "The Wealth of Nations" Smith wrote: " It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest." In modern day terms, so the phrase "there is no such thing as a free lunch" was coined.
Watched or not watched, that is probably not the question.
Friday, 16 October 2009
Gold goes mainstream at Harrods
Today the upmarket London department store Harrods will sell gold bullion and coins over the counter for the first time in its history. It will be sold at the Harrods Bank branch on the lower ground floor of the Knightsbridge store. The owner, Mohamed Fayed, has teamed up with Produits Artistiques Métaux Précieux (PAMP), the Swiss refiner, to sell gold in the store. Mehdi Bakhordar, managing director of PAMP, said: "Harrods stock our full range and are now the only location in London where investors can purchase a 12.5kg gold bar 'off the shelf'."
This is a significant event. It is signalling the precious metal has gone into the retail mainstream and will be the talk of cocktail parties. In the UK, the allure of gold does not glitter as much as the attraction of real estate. Now a recognised brand name as entered the market and reached out to a new audience.
Wealthy investors are looking for an alternative asset class to diversify away from low interest rates and falling property and stock market portfolios over the last twelve months. In January 1980, the gold price hit a record US$800. When adjusted for inflation in US terms, it should be worth over US$2,300 today. If one takes all the gold that was ever mined since the history of mankind, it will just about fill two Olympic-sized swimming pools today. Yesterday, the gold price breached US$ 1,070 an ounce, another new record.
Asia investors will wonder what all the fuss is about. Today, government leaders in Beijing are using the media to encourage citizens to invest at least 5% of their savings into precious metals. Maybe, this issue will grace a magazine cover soon. More important, this is a another sign of a market top.
This is a significant event. It is signalling the precious metal has gone into the retail mainstream and will be the talk of cocktail parties. In the UK, the allure of gold does not glitter as much as the attraction of real estate. Now a recognised brand name as entered the market and reached out to a new audience.
Wealthy investors are looking for an alternative asset class to diversify away from low interest rates and falling property and stock market portfolios over the last twelve months. In January 1980, the gold price hit a record US$800. When adjusted for inflation in US terms, it should be worth over US$2,300 today. If one takes all the gold that was ever mined since the history of mankind, it will just about fill two Olympic-sized swimming pools today. Yesterday, the gold price breached US$ 1,070 an ounce, another new record.
Asia investors will wonder what all the fuss is about. Today, government leaders in Beijing are using the media to encourage citizens to invest at least 5% of their savings into precious metals. Maybe, this issue will grace a magazine cover soon. More important, this is a another sign of a market top.
Thursday, 15 October 2009
Dr Sam Vaknin, narcissism, Obama and the fate of the world economy
Who is Sam Vaknin? He hails from Israel and is a world authority on the study of narcissism. He has dedicated twelve years to the study of personality disorders in general and the Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) in particular. He has authored nine books on this topic including the Barnes & Noble best-seller "Malignant Self-Love: Narcissism Revisited" and has numerous awards under his belt. Although a prominent psychologist, he is adamant he is not a certified mental health professional.
He has studied Adolph Hitler, Mao Zedong, Joseph Stalin, Kim Jong-il, David Koresh and Charles Manson. He has added Barack Obama to this list.
" I must confess I was impressed by Sen Barack Obama from the first time I saw him. At first I was excited to see a black candidate. He looked youthful, spoke well, appeared to be confident – a wholesome presidential package. I was put off soon not just because of his shallowness but also because there was an air of haughtiness in his demeanor that was unsettling. His posture and his body language were louder than his empty words. Obama’s speeches are unlike any political speech we have heard in American history. Never a politician in this land had such quasi “religious” impact on so many people. The fact that Obama is a total incognito with zero accomplishment makes this inexplicable infatuation alarming. Obama is not an ordinary man. He is not a genius. In fact he is quite ignorant on most important subjects. Barack Obama is a narcissist...
...All these men had a tremendous influence over their fanciers. They created a personality cult around themselves and with their blazing speeches elevated their admirers, filled their hearts with enthusiasm and instilled in their minds a new zest for life. They gave them hope. They promised them the moon, but alas, invariably they brought them to their doom. Charmed by the charisma of the pathological narcissist, people cheerfully do his bidding and delight to be at his service. He creates a cult of personality – focused on one thing alone and that is power..."
On Obama's autobiography...
" Obama’s election as the first black president of the Harvard Law Review led to a contract and advance to write a book about race relations. The University of Chicago Law School provided him a lot longer than expected and at the end it evolved into, guess what? His own autobiography! Instead of writing a scholarly paper focusing on race relations, for which he had been paid, Obama could not resist writing about his most sublime self. He entitled the book Dreams from My Father. Not surprisingly, Adolph Hitler also wrote his own autobiography when he was still nobody. So did Stalin. For a pathological narcissist no subject is as important as his own self. Why would he waste his precious time and genius writing about insignificant things when he can write about such an august being as himself? Narcissists are often callous and even ruthless as the norm, they lack conscience. This is evident from Obama’s lack of interest in his own brother who lives on only one dollar per month. A man who lives in luxury, who takes a private jet to vacation in Hawaii, and who has raised nearly half a billion dollars for his campaign (something unprecedented in history) has no interest in the plight of his own brother. Why? Because, his brother cannot be used to increase his power. A narcissist cares for no one but himself. […] What can be more dangerous than having a man bereft of conscience, a serial liar, holding an office of great power?
Many politicians are narcissists. They pose the usual threats to others. […] They are simply self serving and selfish and are prone to passing ill-advised laws.
Obama evidences symptoms of pathological narcissism, which is different from the run-of-the-mill narcissism of a Richard Nixon or a Bill Clinton for example. History shows plenty of evidence that pathological narcissists can be dangerous. "
Is Dr Vaknin being alarmist? Let us look at a sample of recent events that lend to or detract from his prognosis. Obama flew to Copenhagen on Airforce One to pitch for Chicago as a serious 2016 Olympic venue contender (and subsequently failed); summonsed General McChrystal, the top US commander in charge of Afghanistan away from a London meeting to an update on the tarmac before leaving Copenhagen; was awarded the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize (from 205 nominees) a week later on 9 October which he accepted humbly.
A fragile world economy which is tentatively stepping back from the abyss must learn to build trust in the policies from the "man of the moment" who must surely be a strong contender for Time's Person of the Year. Continue to watch Obamanomics with signature healthcare reforms legislation currently being debated in Congress; cap & trade plus new VAT (value added tax) proposals are now on the table as revenue raising measures. These are potentially added costs for the US consumer...and Asia export trade risks. Meanwhile world financial markets continue to cheerlead "green- shoots" countenancing no U-turns.
http://samvak.tripod.com/cv.html
http://samvak.tripod.com/obama.html
He has studied Adolph Hitler, Mao Zedong, Joseph Stalin, Kim Jong-il, David Koresh and Charles Manson. He has added Barack Obama to this list.
" I must confess I was impressed by Sen Barack Obama from the first time I saw him. At first I was excited to see a black candidate. He looked youthful, spoke well, appeared to be confident – a wholesome presidential package. I was put off soon not just because of his shallowness but also because there was an air of haughtiness in his demeanor that was unsettling. His posture and his body language were louder than his empty words. Obama’s speeches are unlike any political speech we have heard in American history. Never a politician in this land had such quasi “religious” impact on so many people. The fact that Obama is a total incognito with zero accomplishment makes this inexplicable infatuation alarming. Obama is not an ordinary man. He is not a genius. In fact he is quite ignorant on most important subjects. Barack Obama is a narcissist...
...All these men had a tremendous influence over their fanciers. They created a personality cult around themselves and with their blazing speeches elevated their admirers, filled their hearts with enthusiasm and instilled in their minds a new zest for life. They gave them hope. They promised them the moon, but alas, invariably they brought them to their doom. Charmed by the charisma of the pathological narcissist, people cheerfully do his bidding and delight to be at his service. He creates a cult of personality – focused on one thing alone and that is power..."
On Obama's autobiography...
" Obama’s election as the first black president of the Harvard Law Review led to a contract and advance to write a book about race relations. The University of Chicago Law School provided him a lot longer than expected and at the end it evolved into, guess what? His own autobiography! Instead of writing a scholarly paper focusing on race relations, for which he had been paid, Obama could not resist writing about his most sublime self. He entitled the book Dreams from My Father. Not surprisingly, Adolph Hitler also wrote his own autobiography when he was still nobody. So did Stalin. For a pathological narcissist no subject is as important as his own self. Why would he waste his precious time and genius writing about insignificant things when he can write about such an august being as himself? Narcissists are often callous and even ruthless as the norm, they lack conscience. This is evident from Obama’s lack of interest in his own brother who lives on only one dollar per month. A man who lives in luxury, who takes a private jet to vacation in Hawaii, and who has raised nearly half a billion dollars for his campaign (something unprecedented in history) has no interest in the plight of his own brother. Why? Because, his brother cannot be used to increase his power. A narcissist cares for no one but himself. […] What can be more dangerous than having a man bereft of conscience, a serial liar, holding an office of great power?
Many politicians are narcissists. They pose the usual threats to others. […] They are simply self serving and selfish and are prone to passing ill-advised laws.
Obama evidences symptoms of pathological narcissism, which is different from the run-of-the-mill narcissism of a Richard Nixon or a Bill Clinton for example. History shows plenty of evidence that pathological narcissists can be dangerous. "
Is Dr Vaknin being alarmist? Let us look at a sample of recent events that lend to or detract from his prognosis. Obama flew to Copenhagen on Airforce One to pitch for Chicago as a serious 2016 Olympic venue contender (and subsequently failed); summonsed General McChrystal, the top US commander in charge of Afghanistan away from a London meeting to an update on the tarmac before leaving Copenhagen; was awarded the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize (from 205 nominees) a week later on 9 October which he accepted humbly.
A fragile world economy which is tentatively stepping back from the abyss must learn to build trust in the policies from the "man of the moment" who must surely be a strong contender for Time's Person of the Year. Continue to watch Obamanomics with signature healthcare reforms legislation currently being debated in Congress; cap & trade plus new VAT (value added tax) proposals are now on the table as revenue raising measures. These are potentially added costs for the US consumer...and Asia export trade risks. Meanwhile world financial markets continue to cheerlead "green- shoots" countenancing no U-turns.
http://samvak.tripod.com/cv.html
http://samvak.tripod.com/obama.html
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